Who funds African real estate in local currency, why so little of it reaches property, and when borrowing in dollars still makes sense, across 14 currencies from Egypt and Morocco to Nigeria, Kenya, Côte d'Ivoire and South Africa.
Also available in French: Financer l’immobilier en Afrique: L’argent est déjà là. Choose the language when you request the report.
The report in six numbers
what a US$ loan drawn in December 2015 is now owed in Ethiopian birr, against 0.95 times in CFA francs (September 2026)
pension, social security and insurance assets in 13 African markets with published regulator data. South Africa's PIC manages US$219.5bn of it.
property headroom left unused by Nigerian, Kenyan and Ghanaian pension funds under their own investment limits, about five times what they hold (Heirstone analysis)
Moroccan OPCI real estate funds' net assets (MAD106.9bn) relative to the market value of the country's two listed property companies
Kenya's 364-day Treasury bill rate in September 2026, above the 8.9% average rental yield on Nairobi offices
currency hedges written by TCX in Sub-Saharan Africa in all of 2025, a record, and less than one Nigerian bond auction
In brief
We sized the pension, social security and insurance money in 13 African markets, about US$388bn, and tested 14 currencies against the dollar from December 2015 to September 2026. Outside South Africa, government securities take half or more of most portfolios, and owners who borrowed dollars against local income have seen their debt multiply where currencies fell hardest. Between the two lies a shortage of local-currency instruments sized and rated for institutions, from Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana to Egypt and the CFA franc zone.
Four of the 14 currencies, the birr, naira, Egyptian pound and kwanza, lost 84 to 87% of their dollar value, so a dollar loan against income in them grew 6.3 to 7.7 times in local terms. The cedi lost 67%, the East African shillings and the rand 5 to 21%, and the Moroccan dirham and the CFA franc gained.
Nigeria's ten-year naira bond cleared at 16.79% in September 2026, against 8.18% on its 2036 Eurobond, which prices in 8.0% a year of depreciation. The naira price of a dollar rose 19.3% a year from 2015. Kenya prices in 2.9 to 4.5% against 2.2% realised.
Nigerian pension funds hold 1.0% of assets in REITs and other collective funds against a limit of 20 to 25%, Ghanaian private pensions 1.2% in alternatives against 25%, and Kenyan schemes 8.6% in property against 30%. On Heirstone's calculation the unused headroom is about US$10.8bn, five times what they hold.
Government securities take 52 to 63% of pension portfolios in Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana. Kenya's 364-day bill paid 9.04% in September 2026, more than the 8.9% average Nairobi office yield, and the property share of Kenyan pension portfolios fell from 11.1% to 8.6% in 2025.
Morocco's unlisted OPCI funds grew 85% in two and a half years to MAD106.9bn, sixteen times the listed property market. South African REITs raised more than R11.4bn of new equity in 2025, and their discount to net asset value had narrowed to 3 to 4% by February 2026.
CRRH-UEMOA placed a XOF60bn 15-year social bond at 6% net of tax in 2025, and Kenya's KMRC paid 12.2% for eight-year money in 2026. In Ghana the cedi payment on the cheapest new house was 2.2 times a dollar-mortgage payment at July 2024 rates.
What it means
Let rated refinancer, guaranteed housing and REIT paper count inside pension property and infrastructure limits, and publish allocations against those limits.
Judge property against the sovereign curve over a full currency cycle, and seed vehicles in preference to building directly.
Match the currency of debt to the currency of income, and run the Heirstone Dollar Debt Test before signing a dollar facility.
Spend scarce balance sheet on guarantees and swaps that bring local institutions in.
Inside the full report
Heirstone datasets
markets in the Heirstone Local Capital Map, holding about US$388bn of pension, social security and insurance assets
questions in the Heirstone Dollar Debt Test: revenue, regime, break-even, and hedge and tenor
markets scored on currency, pool, property vehicles and mortgages in the Heirstone Local Capital Readiness Scorecard
Built from public sources current at October 2026. Every figure is referenced in the report, and figures we derive by combining published numbers are labelled Heirstone analysis.
It depends on the currency the asset earns in. Since December 2015 a dollar loan grew 6.3 to 7.7 times in local terms in birr, naira, Egyptian pounds and kwanza, but 0.95 to 0.98 times in CFA francs and Moroccan dirhams. Heirstone's Dollar Debt Test sets four questions to answer before signing.
Very little of what their rules allow. Nigerian pension funds hold 1.0% in REITs and collective funds against a 20 to 25% limit, and Kenyan schemes 8.6% in property against 30%, leaving about US$10.8bn of headroom unused in Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana.
South Africa dominates listed REITs, with over R350bn (US$21.0bn) of market value in February 2026. Morocco's unlisted OPCI funds held MAD106.9bn (US$10.8bn) in June 2025, Kenya has five REITs and Nigeria five REITs and real estate funds, while Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda have rules but no listed vehicle.
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