What homecoming travel is worth to Africa, how much of it falls in a single season, and what it does to hotels, short lets, heritage towns and coastal property, from Ghana, Nigeria and Benin to Morocco, Egypt and Kenya.
Also available in French: Tourisme de diaspora et de mémoire en Afrique: Le billet retour. Choose the language when you request the report.
The report in six numbers
of Ghana's growth in international arrivals in 2025 came in December: +14,395 of +18,158 (Heirstone analysis)
of December visitors to Ghana surveyed in 2025 stayed in a private home; 23% used a hotel
December return search fares London to Lagos and London to Accra against the cheapest month; Ghana's December flights ran 11% above average
December's share of a full year's short-let revenue potential in six December-peak markets, from Cape Coast to Lagos (Heirstone analysis)
homecoming trips a year implied by Egypt's 14 million nationals abroad, on top of its 19.0 million international arrivals (Heirstone analysis, indicative)
costed by Benin across twelve tourism projects (FCFA585bn), 51% of it on two Ouidah coast schemes
In brief
We sized homecoming travel to Africa from official monthly data, air passenger and fare records and short-let platform data across ten markets, from Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal and Benin to Morocco, Egypt and Kenya. The diaspora's return each December, each summer in Morocco or at Eid in Egypt is a dependable flow. It is also poorly measured and heavily seasonal, and most of it is housed by families, so December alone cannot carry an investment.
The 1.5 million visitors and US$1.9bn linked to Ghana's 2019 Year of Return were reported in late 2019 as expectations for the year. Ghana's official count for 2025 is 1,306,962 arrivals, and we found no official December count for Nigeria.
December arrivals rose 11.4% to 141,186 while January to November rose 0.3%, so December supplied 79% of the year's increase. Air data show 19,103 more arrivals than departures in December 2025, and a January outflow of 14,620 after the previous season.
Ghana's international aircraft movements in December 2025 were 11% above the monthly average while air arrivals were 29% above. Lagos added 1.3% more December seats, and December search fares from London to Lagos and Accra run about 1.7 times the cheapest month.
In Ghana's December survey 46% of visitors stayed in a private home, 23% in a hotel and 21% in an Airbnb. They spend GHS 2,455 (about US$236) a day, 2.6 times a heritage-festival visitor, and 39% of it on accommodation.
In Accra, Lagos, Nairobi, Cape Town and Cape Coast, December brings 11 to 13% of annual short-let revenue potential, and nightly rates rise only 4 to 5% in Accra and Lagos. Realised short-let yields trail long-let yields wherever we could compare them.
Cape Coast, beside Ghana's most-visited castle, has 68 tracked short lets. Benin's project sheets cost twelve tourism projects at FCFA585bn (about US$1.06bn), and since July 2025 Benin has offered a nationality route to Afro-descendants.
What it means
Count nationals living abroad at the border, as Morocco does, and publish December data within weeks, with the survey method.
Add peak capacity in the direction of travel: inbound in December, outbound in January.
Underwrite on January to November and treat December as the upside. Build for long stays as well as the season.
Tie events to beds, and sell the January, Easter and July calendars to repeat visitors.
Inside the full report
Heirstone datasets
homecoming markets in the Heirstone Homecoming Benchmark, from Morocco and Egypt to Ghana, Senegal, Benin and Kenya
tests in the Heirstone twelve-month test, applied to seven homecoming asset types from capital-city hotels to heritage-town guesthouses
homecoming markets in the Heirstone typology: the December season, the summer return, the Eid return and the heritage pilgrimage
Built from public sources current at October 2026. Every figure is referenced in the report, and figures we derive by combining published numbers are labelled Heirstone analysis.
Roughly US$0.4bn to US$0.5bn of visitor spending, by Heirstone's estimate: US$469m on average receipts per visitor and US$433m on the December survey's daily spend. Both are illustrative, and together they suggest a December worth about a tenth of Ghana's annual receipts.
Not on December alone. December brings 12.1% of a year's short-let revenue potential in Accra and 13.2% in Lagos, occupancy rises by more than a third while nightly rates rise only 4 to 5%, and realised short-let yields trail long-let yields wherever the two could be compared.
Moroccans living abroad made up 49% of Morocco's 17.4 million arrivals in 2024, and Operation Marhaba recorded more than 4.1 million of their arrivals between 10 June and 15 September 2026. Egypt does not count them separately, but its 14 million nationals abroad imply about 9.7 million homecoming trips a year (Heirstone analysis, indicative).
Tourism Development
Heirstone Consulting Research
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