Africa Trade Corridors & Logistics Land: AfCFTA

The report in six numbers

106.7 h

average dwell of containerised cargo at the port of Mombasa in 2025, more than twice the port's 48-hour target

1.8%

share of its 450,000 TEU design capacity that Kenya's Naivasha inland container depot used in 2025; Nairobi's depot used 69%

21%

share of AfCFTA country pairs in which both sides had gazetted their tariff schedules by April 2025 (Heirstone analysis)

+161%

population growth of Chirundu, on Zambia's first one-stop border post, between the 2010 and 2022 censuses; Lusaka grew 27%

US$4-7

prime logistics rent per m² a month in seven corridor cities in H2 2025, with yields from 8% near the coast to 13% in Kampala

100%

of Lusaka South MFEZ's 548.6 ha of industrial land allocated by June 2025, with 20 investors waiting

In brief

The free trade area is likely to raise land values where cargo has to stop and where the hours it loses are being cut. Much of the new line capacity will wait for traffic.

Corridors are usually sold by the kilometre. This report measures them in hours and tonnes at 34 nodes in 22 countries, from Tanger Med and Port Said to Mombasa, Dar es Salaam, Lagos and Zambia's border towns. Much of a container's time between ship and customer is lost at the port gate and in the inland clearance yard, and the land that gains value is the land that removes those hours.

The treaty has run ahead of the trade.
Fifty countries have ratified the AfCFTA, but only 23 had gazetted their tariff schedules by April 2025, so on that count about 21% of country pairs could use its tariffs. Intra-African trade was 14.7% of Africa's trade in 2024, against 21.2% inside ASEAN.
The port gate now costs more hours than the border.
Containerised cargo waited an average of 106.7 hours at Mombasa in 2025, over twice the port's 48-hour target. Trucks need 30 to 35 hours to move a box from Dar es Salaam port to the Kwala dry port, against about an hour by rail. Land borders with one-stop posts take about 40 minutes to 12 hours.
New capacity is a poor guide to cargo.
Naivasha's depot used 1.8% of its capacity in 2025 and the Addis Ababa-Djibouti railway about 16%, while Nairobi's depot ran at 69%. On Wikipedia's figures, the Ethiopian line's capital cost was US$1,100 to 1,400 per tonne carried in 2025, and Lobito's 4.6 Mt target is 1.4 times the Benguela line's 1973 peak.
Africa's ports have split into two economies.
Port Said ranked 3rd and Tanger Med 5th in the World Bank's 2024 port index, while most Sub-Saharan gateways ranked 309th to 405th in the 2023 edition. At the hubs land value sits in free zones, at the gateways in land that relieves the gate.
Border towns grow where cargo breaks bulk.
Between Zambia's 2010 and 2022 censuses Chirundu grew 161% and Nakonde 118%, against 27% for Lusaka, and Beitbridge is five times its 1992 size. Pass-through posts such as Malaba stay small, and Chirundu's one-stop gains eroded as traffic grew.
Rents are flat in dollars and land carries the upside.
Prime logistics rents sit at US$4 to 7 per m² a month, and only Lagos and Kampala are above their 2021 level. Yields of 12 to 13% in Kampala and Lusaka, against 8 to 10% near the coast, show where faster corridors could add most value, and serviced land at working nodes is full.

What it means

Recommendations by audience

Corporates

Hold regional stock where cargo clears customs and trains run, and check each trade lane against the list of gazetted schedules before counting on tariff savings.

Investors and lenders

Underwrite measured throughput and hours saved, treat design capacity as a ceiling and expect most of the return from land and yield compression.

Developers

Buy within reach of the gate and build in towns where cargo breaks bulk: container freight stations, truck parks, bonded yards and workforce housing.

Governments and port authorities

Publish dwell times and release serviced land beside working gates and depots. In the cases reviewed, designation alone has not brought occupiers.

Inside the full report

30 pages of evidence, benchmarks and tests

The treaty runs ahead of the trade
Where the hours go
The capacity overhang
Gateways, hubs and the towns behind the border
Flat rents, scarce land
The Heirstone Corridor Node Benchmark
North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa

Heirstone datasets

corridor nodes in 22 countries in the Heirstone Corridor Node Benchmark: hubs, gateway ports, inland depots, border towns and junctions

nodes scored on the five-part Heirstone Node Test, from 4 to 8 points out of 10

ports, rail lines and inland depots in the Heirstone Capacity Use Ledger, from Naivasha at 1.8% to Lomé at 89%

Built from public sources current at October 2026. Every figure is referenced in the report, and figures we derive by combining published numbers are labelled Heirstone analysis.

Frequently asked questions

How has the AfCFTA changed trade in Africa so far?

Less than the treaty suggests. Fifty countries have ratified it, but only 23 had gazetted their tariff schedules by April 2025, so about 21% of country pairs could use its tariffs. Intra-African trade was 14.7% of Africa's trade in 2024, against 21.2% inside ASEAN.

Where is logistics and industrial land gaining value on African trade corridors?

Where cargo has to stop and hours are being cut: beside working port gates and rail-served depots, and in border towns where cargo breaks bulk. Chirundu grew 161% and Nakonde 118% between Zambia's 2010 and 2022 censuses, against 27% for Lusaka.

What are prime logistics rents and yields in Africa?

Prime logistics rents were US$4 to 7 per m² a month in seven corridor cities in H2 2025, and only Lagos and Kampala were above their 2021 level in dollars. Prime yields run from 8% near the coast to 13% in Kampala and 12 to 12.5% in Lusaka, with cities further inland pricing higher.